Executive Summary

Key insights and market outlook

Indonesia's inflation rate reached 2.92% year-on-year in December 2025, up from 1.57% in December 2024 ⁵

. The increase was primarily driven by rising food prices, particularly commodities like chili, rice, and gold jewelry ²³⁶. Monthly inflation stood at 0.64% in December 2025, with the food, beverage, and tobacco category being the main contributor ².

Full Analysis

02

Deep Dive Analysis

Indonesia's Inflation Climbs to 2.92% in December 2025

Food Prices Drive Inflation Increase

Indonesia's inflation rate rose to 2.92% year-on-year in December 2025, marking a significant increase from 1.57% in December 2024 ⁵

. This surge was primarily driven by rising prices in the food, beverage, and tobacco category, which contributed 0.48% to the monthly inflation rate of 0.64% ².

Key commodities that contributed to the inflationary pressure included:

Chili: Contributed 0.17% to the inflation rate ²
Source 2
https://finance.detik.com/berita-ekonomi-bisnis/d-8292440/harga-rokok-bikin-desember-2025-inflasi-0-64
Chicken meat: Contributed 0.09% to the inflation rate ²
Source 2
https://finance.detik.com/berita-ekonomi-bisnis/d-8292440/harga-rokok-bikin-desember-2025-inflasi-0-64
Shallots: Contributed 0.07% to the inflation rate ²
Source 2
https://finance.detik.com/berita-ekonomi-bisnis/d-8292440/harga-rokok-bikin-desember-2025-inflasi-0-64
Gold jewelry: Was a significant contributor to annual inflation, appearing 11 times as a monthly inflation contributor throughout 2025 ³
Source 3
https://finance.detik.com/berita-ekonomi-bisnis/d-8292481/harga-emas-meledak-sepanjang-2025-jadi-biang-inflasi-11-kali
Rice: Experienced price increases across all distribution channels ⁴
Source 4
https://nasional.kontan.co.id/news/harga-beras-naik-lagi-harga-beras-premium-paling-tinggi-kenaikannya

The annual inflation rate was consistent with the year-to-date inflation rate of 2.92%, as both comparisons were made to the same base period ⁵

. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose from 106.80 in December 2024 to 109.92 in December 2025 ⁷.

Impact on Farmers and Economy

Despite inflationary pressures, the Farmer Exchange Rate (NTP) improved to 125.35 in December 2025, indicating increased purchasing power for farmers ¹

. This improvement was driven by a 2.08% increase in prices received by farmers, outpacing the 1.02% increase in prices paid by farmers ¹.

References