Executive Summary

Key insights and market outlook

The M1 money supply in Indonesia is expected to increase significantly by the end of 2025, reaching Rp 5,800 trillion ¹

², driven by growing economic activity and mobility during the Christmas and New Year holidays. This prediction is based on historical trends, where the M1 money supply tends to rise during the holiday season ¹. Additionally, inflation is expected to increase in December 2025, influenced by rising food prices and increased consumer spending ³⁴.

Full Analysis

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Deep Dive Analysis

Indonesia's M1 Money Supply Predicted to Reach Rp 5,800 Trillion by December 2025

Growing Economic Activity and Mobility Drive M1 Increase

The M1 money supply in Indonesia is expected to increase significantly by the end of 2025, reaching Rp 5,800 trillion ¹

², driven by growing economic activity and mobility during the Christmas and New Year holidays. This prediction is based on historical trends, where the M1 money supply tends to rise during the holiday season ¹. According to Banjaran Surya Indrastomo, Head of Economics at Bank Syariah Indonesia (BSI), the increase in M1 is also influenced by the rise in consumer spending and economic activity during the holiday season ¹.

Inflation Expected to Increase in December 2025

In addition to the predicted increase in M1, inflation is expected to increase in December 2025, influenced by rising food prices and increased consumer spending ³

⁴. The inflation rate is predicted to rise by 0.7% on a monthly basis, higher than the previous month's rate of 0.17% ⁴. This increase in inflation is driven by the surge in food prices, particularly during the holiday season ³.

References