Indonesia's Narrow Money Supply to Reach Rp5,900 Trillion by December 2025

Strong Growth Driven by Nataru Consumption

Indonesia's narrow money supply, or M1, is expected to experience significant growth during the Natal dan Tahun Baru (Nataru) period of 2025/2026. According to Muhammad Rizal Taufikurahman, Head of Macroeconomic and Finance at the Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (Indef), M1 is likely to exceed the December 2024 level of Rp5,223.9 trillion ¹

Yusuf Rendy Manilet, an economist at the Center of Reform on Economics (CORE), provided more specific projections, suggesting that M1 could grow by 11%-13% year-on-year to reach between Rp5,800 trillion and Rp5,900 trillion by December 2025. This projection indicates a substantial acceleration from the 5.8% yoy growth that resulted in Rp5,223.9 trillion in December 2024 ²

Drivers of M1 Growth

The anticipated surge in M1 is primarily attributed to the increased transactional demand during the Nataru period. Rizal noted that this growth is largely driven by short-term consumption needs rather than a fundamental strengthening of economic liquidity ¹

The strong growth in M1 observed through November 2025 supports these projections. Data showed M1 growing by 11.4% yoy to reach Rp5,748 trillion, demonstrating a robust upward trend ²

Implications for Economic Liquidity

While the projected increase in M1 is significant, economists are cautious about its implications. The growth is seen as largely reflecting seasonal effects rather than underlying economic fundamentals. As such, it is crucial to monitor whether this increase translates into sustained economic activity beyond the Nataru period.