Indonesia's Q4 2025 Economic Growth Forecast Revealed

Economic Performance Update

Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa announced that Indonesia's economic growth for Q4 2025 is expected to reach 5.45%. While this figure falls short of the targeted 5.7% growth, it represents a continued upward trend from previous quarters. The economy grew by 4.87% in Q1 2025, followed by 5.12% in Q2, and then slightly dipped to 5.04% in Q3.

Minister's Statement and Economic Context

During a press conference at the Ministry of Finance in Jakarta on January 8, 2026, Purbaya stated, "Mungkin triwulan keempat di atas 5 (persen), mendekati lima. Kira kira 5,45% kalau tidak ada perubahan. Di bawah janji ya, tapi lumayan masih lebih tinggi dibanding triwulan-triwulan sebelumnya." This statement translates to an expectation of Q4 growth being above 5%, nearing 5.45% if there are no changes, which is below the initial commitment but still higher than the previous quarters.

Analysis of Economic Trends

The predicted 5.45% growth for Q4 2025 indicates a positive trajectory in Indonesia's economic recovery and growth. Despite not meeting the initial target of 5.7%, the steady increase from 4.87% in Q1 to 5.45% in Q4 suggests a strengthening economy. This growth pattern is crucial for understanding Indonesia's economic resilience and the effectiveness of current economic policies.