Key insights and market outlook
The Indonesian government needs to spend Rp 934.5 trillion in November and December 2025 to meet its state budget (APBN) target. As of October 2025, state expenditure realization stood at Rp 2.593 trillion (73.5% of target). Economists warn that fully absorbing the remaining budget might be challenging despite government stimulus in Q4-2025.
The Indonesian government is facing a significant challenge as it needs to spend Rp 934.5 trillion in the remaining two months of 2025 to meet its state budget (APBN) target. As of October 2025, the realization of state expenditure stood at Rp 2.593 trillion, which accounts for 73.5% of the total outlook of Rp 3.527.5 trillion.
Dian Ayu Yustina, Head of Macroeconomics and Financial Market Research at Bank Mandiri, expressed concerns that fully absorbing the remaining Rp 934.5 trillion by year-end might be difficult. Despite the government's efforts to implement various stimulus measures in the fourth quarter of 2025, there are doubts about the effectiveness of these initiatives in achieving the desired budget absorption rate.
The inability to fully absorb the budget could have implications for Indonesia's economic performance. Effective budget realization is crucial for supporting economic growth, particularly in the final quarter of the year when government spending typically plays a significant role in driving economic activity.
State Budget Realization Update
Government Expenditure Target