Indonesia's Tax Refund Continues to Surge, Potential 2026 Increase

Significant Rise in Tax Refund

Indonesia's tax refund (restitusi pajak) has reached Rp351.05 trillion by November 2025, marking a substantial 35.5% year-on-year increase ¹

. This significant rise is attributed to the difference between gross tax revenue (Rp1,985.48 trillion) and net tax revenue (Rp1,634.43 trillion) during the same period ¹

Source 1

https://nasional.kontan.co.id/news/restitusi-pajak-hingga-november-2025-capai-rp-351-triliun-naik-355

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Factors Contributing to High Refund Rates

Experts identify several key factors contributing to the high tax refund rates. The primary source is corporate income tax (PPh Badan) overpayments for the 2024 tax year, which are still being processed by tax authorities ²

. Other contributing factors include personal income tax (PPh 21) and value-added tax (PPN) overpayments ³

Source 3

https://nasional.kontan.co.id/news/restitusi-pajak-2026-diprediksi-membengkak

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Projections for 2026

Tax experts warn that the tax refund trend is likely to continue into 2026. According to Prianto Budi Saptono from Pratama-Kreston Tax Research Institute, the period between January and April 2026 could see significant tax refunds due to pending tax overpayment claims ²

. Raden Agus Suparman from Botax Consulting Indonesia concurs, citing multiple factors that could lead to larger tax refunds in 2026, including PPh 21, PPN, and corporate and personal income tax overpayments ³

Source 3

https://nasional.kontan.co.id/news/restitusi-pajak-2026-diprediksi-membengkak

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Implications for Tax Revenue

The continued high rate of tax refunds poses challenges for Indonesia's tax revenue performance. The Ministry of Finance will need to address the underlying causes of tax overpayments while managing the fiscal impact of increased refunds.