LPEM UI Predicts Decline in November 2025 Inflation

Forecast Details

Teuku Riefky, a Macroeconomic and Financial Market Researcher at the LPEM UI Research Institute, has projected that Indonesia's inflation rate for November 2025 will experience a year-on-year (YoY) decline compared to the previous month. The predicted inflation range is 2.70% to 2.75% YoY, representing a decrease from October's recorded inflation of 2.86% YoY.

Factors Influencing the Decline

The anticipated decrease in inflation is primarily attributed to the normalization of gold prices. In the previous month, a surge in gold prices had contributed to higher inflation. However, with the stabilization of gold commodity prices, the pressure on inflation has become milder. This development is expected to result in a more controlled inflation environment for November 2025.

Implications for Monetary Policy

The projected decline in inflation to within the predicted range could have significant implications for monetary policy decisions. A stable inflation rate within the target range provides the central bank with flexibility in managing interest rates and supporting economic growth. The forecast suggests that inflationary pressures are being managed effectively, contributing to a more stable macroeconomic environment.