Mixed Economic Signals During 2025/2026 New Year Holiday Period

Contrasting Views on Spending

The 2025/2026 New Year holiday period presented mixed economic indicators across different reports. According to Celios, the economic circulation during this period was expected to be lower than previous years due to decreased consumer purchasing power ¹

. Nailul Huda from Celios noted a significant gap between projected and actual tourist numbers in popular destinations like Yogyakarta, directly impacting local businesses' revenue.

Positive Spending Trends

In contrast, Bank Mandiri's Spending Index showed a 0.6% week-on-week increase to 354.5 as of December 28, 2025, indicating positive spending growth, albeit at a slower pace than the previous week ²

. This data suggests that while spending continued to grow, it had passed its peak during the Nataru period.

Saving Trends Ahead of Ramadan

Interestingly, Bank Mandiri's data also revealed that middle-income consumers were adopting a more cautious financial approach as they increased their savings in preparation for Ramadan, expected in February 2026 ³

. The savings index for this group rose by 0.49 points to 101.2 by December 31, 2025, indicating a shift towards saving rather than spending.

Business Community's Optimism

The Indonesian Chamber of Commerce (Kadin) presented a more optimistic view, suggesting that the total transaction value during the Nataru period could exceed Rp 107.56 trillion ⁴

. This projection was based on an estimated 119.5 million people (or 29.87 million families) traveling during the holiday. Kadin's optimism was further supported by reports that businesses were offering significant discounts during the year-end period.

Analysis of Contrasting Reports

The differing perspectives on Nataru spending can be attributed to various factors, including different data collection methodologies and sample demographics. While Celios focused on specific tourist destinations, Bank Mandiri's data reflected broader spending patterns through their Mandiri Spending Index. Kadin's projection, on the other hand, was based on overall travel and transaction estimates.