November 2025 Inflation Forecast: Easing Trend Continues

Economic Context and Price Movements

Indonesia's inflation rate is expected to continue its easing trend in November 2025, with predictions suggesting a decline to 2.75% year-on-year (YoY) and 0.20% month-on-month (MoM). This forecast, provided by Banjaran Surya Indrastomo, Chief Economist at Bank Syariah Indonesia (BSI), indicates a moderation from the previous month's figures of 2.86% YoY and 0.28% MoM.

The easing inflation is primarily attributed to the normalization of prices in key food commodities. Notably, rice prices decreased by 0.36%, contributing to the overall decline in inflation. The increase in red chili prices slowed to 0.96%, down from previous months, while chicken meat prices rose by 1.11% but remained relatively controlled.

Implications for Monetary Policy and Consumer Spending

The predicted moderation in inflation has positive implications for Indonesia's economic management. Lower inflationary pressures provide the central bank with greater flexibility in monetary policy, potentially allowing for more accommodative measures to support economic growth. For consumers, the stabilization of food prices, particularly for staple commodities like rice, is likely to ease household expenditure pressures.

Market and Economic Outlook

The inflation trend is being closely monitored by financial markets and policymakers. A sustained decline in inflation could lead to increased consumer spending, potentially boosting economic activity. However, ongoing monitoring of commodity prices will be crucial as they remain a key driver of inflationary trends in Indonesia.