November Inflation Forecast: Analysis and Implications

Economic Overview

David Sumual, Chief Economist at Bank Central Asia (BCA), has projected that Indonesia's inflation rate for November 2025 will decrease to 2.73% year-on-year (YoY), down from 2.86% YoY in October. This forecast is primarily attributed to the decline in food prices, which has been a significant factor in the overall inflation trend.

Monthly Inflation Trends

On a month-on-month (MoM) basis, the inflation for November 2025 is expected to be 0.18%, which is lower than the 0.28% MoM recorded in October. This decrease indicates a moderation in price increases, providing some relief to consumers.

Core Inflation Analysis

Despite the overall decrease in inflation, core inflation is predicted to rise. For November 2025, core inflation is forecasted to be 2.41% YoY and 0.22% MoM, up from 2.36% YoY and 0.39% MoM in October. This increase in core inflation suggests underlying price pressures that need to be monitored closely.

Implications for Monetary Policy

The projected decrease in overall inflation could have implications for Bank Indonesia's monetary policy decisions. A lower inflation rate may provide room for further monetary easing, potentially supporting economic growth. However, the rise in core inflation will likely be a point of consideration for policymakers.

Market and Consumer Impact

The forecasted inflation rate is likely to influence both market dynamics and consumer behavior. Lower inflation generally supports consumer purchasing power and can boost market sentiment. However, the increase in core inflation may lead to cautious consumer spending and investment decisions.