Oil Market Volatility Continues in Early 2026

Mixed Signals from Venezuela Developments

The oil market experienced mixed reactions in early January 2026 as news about Venezuela's political developments created uncertainty about potential supply disruptions. On one hand, the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro by the United States led to concerns about possible supply chain interruptions ¹

. On the other hand, analysts noted that Venezuela's oil production capacity is relatively limited compared to global supply, potentially minimizing the impact ⁴

Source 4

https://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/harga-minyak-wti-fluktuatif-pada-awal-2026-pasar-cermati-gejolak-venezuela-dan-opec

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Price Movements Reflect Market Sentiment

Brent crude prices showed varied movements, dropping to US$61.62 per barrel on Tuesday morning before recovering to US$62.10 per barrel later in the day ¹

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Source 2

https://internasional.kontan.co.id/news/harga-minyak-menguat-di-tengah-prospek-pasokan-dan-ketidakpastian-venezuela

. Similarly, WTI prices fluctuated between US$58.15 and US$58.62 per barrel during the same period ¹

Source 1

https://internasional.kontan.co.id/news/harga-minyak-turun-selasa-61-pagi-brent-ke-us6162-dan-wti-ke-us5815

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Source 2

https://internasional.kontan.co.id/news/harga-minyak-menguat-di-tengah-prospek-pasokan-dan-ketidakpastian-venezuela

. These price movements reflect the ongoing debate among market participants about the potential impact of Venezuelan developments on global oil supply.

Analyst Insights on Market Dynamics

Tamas Varga from PVM Oil noted that while it's too early to assess the full impact of recent Venezuelan events, "it's clear that oil supply will be adequate in 2026, with or without increased production from OPEC members" ²

. Lukman Leong from Doo Financial Futures added that investors are cautiously assessing potential supply disruptions while also considering the possibility of increased production if US companies return to Venezuela ⁴

Source 4

https://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/harga-minyak-wti-fluktuatif-pada-awal-2026-pasar-cermati-gejolak-venezuela-dan-opec

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Market Outlook and Supply Concerns

The overall market sentiment remains cautious due to concerns about global supply and demand dynamics. A Reuters survey indicated that market participants expect oil prices to remain under pressure in 2026 due to increasing supply and weak demand ²

. The current market dynamics suggest that while short-term volatility may continue, the overall supply is expected to remain sufficient.