Executive Summary

Key insights and market outlook

Oil prices rose over 3% on Thursday after two consecutive days of decline, reaching two-week highs amid concerns over supply disruptions from Venezuela, Russia, Iraq, and Iran. Brent crude futures climbed US$ 2.03 (3.4%) to US$ 61.99/bbl, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose US$ 1.77 (3.2%) to US$ 57.76/bbl ¹

. The surge follows US moves to control Venezuela's oil sales and recent seizures of sanctioned tankers ².

Full Analysis

02

Deep Dive Analysis

Oil Prices Rebound Amid Geopolitical Tensions

Significant Price Movement

Oil prices experienced a significant rebound on Thursday, rising over 3% after two consecutive days of decline. This recovery brought prices to their highest level in two weeks, driven by growing concerns over potential supply disruptions from major oil-producing countries ¹

.

Key Price Changes

Brent crude futures increased by US$ 2.03 (3.4%) to settle at US$ 61.99 per barrel
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose by US$ 1.77 (3.2%) to reach US$ 57.76 per barrel
The price movement represents the highest closing for Brent since December 24 ¹
Source 1
https://internasional.kontan.co.id/news/harga-minyak-melonjak-3-lebih-tinggi-di-tengah-gejolak-venezuela-dan-rusia

Market Drivers

The price surge was primarily driven by:

Geopolitical developments in Venezuela: Foreign embassies began arranging visits for next week, including representatives from US and European oil companies, following Washington's announcement of a US$ 2 billion oil deal and supply of US goods to the South American country ¹
Source 1
https://internasional.kontan.co.id/news/harga-minyak-melonjak-3-lebih-tinggi-di-tengah-gejolak-venezuela-dan-rusia
US policy shifts: The US plans to control Venezuela's oil sales without a time limit, coupled with the seizure of two sanctioned tankers, contributed to market concerns about tighter supply ²
Source 2
https://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/harga-minyak-rebound-kebijakan-as-ke-venezuela-jadi-kunci
Global supply concerns: Ongoing tensions involving Russia, Iraq, and Iran added to the market's supply concerns, supporting the price increase

Market Reaction

The rebound was observed across different market sessions:

Early trading saw WTI rise 0.59% to US$ 56.32 per barrel ²
Source 2
https://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/harga-minyak-rebound-kebijakan-as-ke-venezuela-jadi-kunci
By mid-day, Brent had increased 0.55% to US$ 60.29 per barrel, while WTI strengthened 0.54% to US$ 56.29 per barrel ³
Source 3
https://internasional.kontan.co.id/news/harga-minyak-rebound-05-brent-ke-us-60-dan-wti-ke-us-56-di-tengah-hari-ini-81