Executive Summary

Key insights and market outlook

OPEC+ is likely to maintain stable oil production at its upcoming meeting despite escalating tensions between key members Saudi Arabia and UAE over Yemen ¹

. The decision comes as oil prices fell over 18% in 2025, their sharpest decline since 2020, amid concerns of oversupply. The eight OPEC+ member countries had collectively increased their oil production target by 2.9 million barrels per day between April and December 2025.

Full Analysis

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Deep Dive Analysis

OPEC+ to Maintain Oil Production Amid Regional Tensions

Stable Production Decision

OPEC+ is set to maintain stable oil production levels at its upcoming meeting despite growing tensions between major producers Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) over Yemen ¹

. This decision comes as the global oil market faces significant challenges, including a sharp 18% decline in oil prices during 2025 - the largest drop since 2020.

Production Targets and Market Context

The eight key OPEC+ member countries - including Saudi Arabia, Russia, UAE, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, and Oman - had collectively increased their oil production target by 2.9 million barrels per day between April and December 2025. This increase represents nearly 3% of global oil demand and has contributed to the current market oversupply concerns.

Market Implications

The decision to maintain current production levels is particularly significant given the ongoing geopolitical tensions between two major OPEC+ members. The conflict in Yemen continues to be a point of contention between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, potentially impacting regional stability. Despite these tensions, OPEC+ appears committed to its current production strategy, prioritizing market stability over regional political considerations.

References