Rupiah Weakens Against USD Amid Monetary Policy Expectations

Currency Movement Analysis

The Indonesian rupiah closed at Rp16,750 per USD on Friday (19/12/2025), representing a 0.16% depreciation ³

. This movement brought the rupiah close to its lowest closing level in a month, observed on November 18, 2025. The currency opened slightly stronger at Rp16,709 per USD in the morning but faced selling pressure throughout the day ²

Source 2

https://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/rupiah-dibuka-menguat-rp-16709-per-dolar-as-hari-ini-1912-asia-bervariasi

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Market Factors and Economic Context

Analysts attributed the rupiah's weakness to expectations of a potential BI rate cut and the government's dovish policy stance ¹

. The US dollar index showed mixed movement throughout the week, weakening early in the week but recovering slightly by Friday. Most Asian currencies faced similar pressure, with the Malaysian ringgit being a notable exception as it strengthened by 0.11% ²

Source 2

https://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/rupiah-dibuka-menguat-rp-16709-per-dolar-as-hari-ini-1912-asia-bervariasi

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Bank-specific Exchange Rates

Major Indonesian banks showed varying exchange rates for USD on Friday:

• Bank Central Asia (BCA/BBCA): Rp16,728 (buy) - Rp16,748 (sell) e-rate
• Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BRI/BBRI): Rp16,718 (buy) - Rp16,745 (sell) e-rate
• Bank Mandiri (BMRI): Rp16,700 (buy) - Rp16,730 (sell) special rate
• Bank Negara Indonesia (BNI/BBNI): Rp16,723 (buy) - Rp16,753 (sell) special rate ⁵
  Source 5

  https://finansial.bisnis.com/read/20251219/90/1938150/rupiah-menguat-cek-kurs-bni-bank-mandiri-bca-dan-bni

Market Outlook

Economic analyst Ibrahim Assuaibi suggested that the rupiah is likely to remain under pressure, potentially closing between Rp16,720-Rp16,750 per USD ⁵

. The market is currently focused on upcoming US inflation data and potential stagflation risks in the US economy, which could further influence currency movements.