Executive Summary

Key insights and market outlook

Silver prices have surged to record highs above US$79 per ounce ²

, driven by China's new export restrictions on silver, tungsten, and antimony effective January 1, 2025 ¹. The move has tightened global silver supply, with China being the world's second-largest silver producer. Year-to-date gains now stand at 159%, outpacing gold's 70% increase. The price surge is further supported by investor demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns.

Full Analysis

02

Deep Dive Analysis

Silver Prices Reach Historic Highs Following China's Export Restrictions

Record Price Surge

Silver prices have achieved record-breaking levels above US$79 per ounce ²

, marking a significant milestone in the precious metals market. The year-to-date increase has been remarkable at 159%, substantially outperforming gold's 70% gain during the same period ¹. This surge is primarily attributed to China's recent decision to impose strict export controls on silver, tungsten, and antimony effective January 1, 2025 ¹.

China's Export Restrictions Impact

As the world's second-largest silver producer with 3,300 metric tons produced in 2024 ¹

, China's new regulations have significantly impacted global supply dynamics. The requirement for special export permits from the Ministry of Commerce (Mofcom) is expected to limit supply availability and favor larger companies with the necessary resources to comply ¹.

Market Dynamics and Investor Behavior

The price action in silver has been accompanied by similar movements in other precious metals. Gold prices have also reached record levels, with spot gold closing at US$4,533.21 per ounce and futures for February 2026 trading at US$4,552.7 per ounce ²

. The surge in precious metals prices is driven by investor demand for safe-haven assets amid heightened geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns. Market participants are also anticipating further monetary easing by the Federal Reserve in 2026, contributing to the current market dynamics.

Market Outlook

According to Peter Grant, Vice President and Senior Metals Strategist at Zaner Metals, "Expectations of further Fed easing in 2026, a weaker dollar, and increasing geopolitical tensions are driving volatility in thin markets" ²

. While some profit-taking is anticipated before year-end, the overall trend remains strong supported by fundamental factors.

References